Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 35.500474 38.535242 41.887976 45.902889 50.629781 56.083179 62.950043
2025-08-10 31.196892 35.185681 39.910311 46.045722 54.007668 64.316689 79.299661
2025-08-17 28.078268 32.364510 37.651599 44.867377 54.845391 68.857650 91.624611
2025-08-24 25.782926 30.179788 35.763884 43.672298 55.161213 72.408212 103.354974
2025-08-31 25.039231 29.827408 36.116928 45.426189 59.805453 83.372880 132.167556
2025-09-07 23.501797 28.272793 34.660990 44.363163 59.916718 86.880952 148.594416
2025-09-14 22.254693 27.000254 33.461002 43.499654 60.145058 90.575465 167.715580
2025-09-21 20.842518 25.406721 31.678871 41.551769 58.246226 89.752198 174.994068
2025-09-28 20.078528 24.658388 31.045938 41.312210 59.237558 94.932433 203.571053
2025-10-05 20.139275 25.056518 32.095951 43.842930 65.617049 113.828240 305.674561
2025-10-12 19.403026 24.269914 31.313149 43.254973 65.976431 118.816796 361.878721
2025-10-19 18.996445 23.935203 31.189494 43.764648 68.598983 130.735488 497.813164
2025-10-26 18.375930 23.373454 30.858301 44.222449 72.005400 149.424251 891.716374
2025-11-02 17.699588 22.704809 30.334253 44.333793 74.905672 170.177790 2235.983627
2025-11-09 16.863172 21.736479 29.240143 43.229734 74.694690 180.042857 6726.241388
2025-11-16 16.106803 20.845326 28.203444 42.108095 74.190823 188.854564 NaN
2025-11-23 15.918345 20.810399 28.570916 43.753721 81.247087 243.398017 NaN
2025-11-30 15.296858 20.064294 27.680734 42.756665 80.876360 258.258470 NaN
2025-12-07 14.755818 19.418606 26.920635 41.945949 80.870051 276.982271 NaN
2025-12-14 14.089227 18.547087 25.724143 40.114504 77.479601 267.210335 NaN
2025-12-21 13.721887 18.136240 25.304872 39.889011 78.934924 299.879988 NaN
2025-12-28 13.768806 18.386889 26.055759 42.268324 89.490419 469.953614 NaN
2026-01-04 13.390898 17.930944 25.515111 41.716097 90.037659 528.635790 NaN